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April 22, 2020

Oil economy recovery to take up to three years: Poll

In a poll, 46.2% of Offshore Technology readers said they believe the global economy will take between one and three years to recover.

By Matt Farmer

Our poll question asked: “Given the current climate, how long do you anticipate it will take for the global economy to recover post Covid-19?”.

More than 200 respondents gave their opinion. The largest group answered that it would take between one year and three years.

Of the respondents, 18.4% said the recovery would be complete within one year, with the same proportion replying it would take more than five years. Meanwhile, 17.0% said the recovery would take at least three years, but less than five years.

Commentators are divided on how long it will take for the global economy to recover. Many countries which have left lockdown are still using social distancing to prevent any remaining illness spreading in a “second wave”. The measures hamper productivity, but not as much as another outbreak of Covid-19 would.

Some areas of Japan have seen the number of cases increase after the virus was initially controlled and lockdown measures were lifted.

As an unfolding area of study, the scientific consensus is mixed around how the world will cope after the initial peak in Covid-19 cases. Some studies submitted to journals have posited strong lockdown or social distancing measures will need to stay in place for some time after the pass of the initial wave.

In many places, social distancing measure will likely remain once lockdown measures are eased. These will likely harm productivity offshore, and cause further delays to planned maintenance and new investments.

Regardless of health, Rystad Energy vice-president of cost analysis Matthew Fitzsimmons told Offshore Technology that some operators will be happier to temporarily run platforms at a loss in order to weather the current economic climate. In an interview for an upcoming edition of Offshore Technology Focus, he said the current pandemic not affect the forecast for oil consumption once health protection measures end.

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