Asia to lead global refinery capacity growth by 2024

GlobalData Energy 18 February 2020 (Last Updated February 17th, 2020 12:26)

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Global Refining Industry Outlook to 2024 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook with Details of All Operating and Planned Refineries’ indicates that the global refining capacity is expected to increase from 106.1 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) in 2019 to 125.2mmbd in 2024.

Paraguana in Venezuela, Ulsan in South Korea and Ruwais in the United Arab Emirates were the largest active refineries globally with refining capacities of 955 thousand barrels of oil per day (mbd), 840mbd and 837mbd respectively in 2019.

A total of 154 planned and announced crude oil refineries are expected to start operations by 2024. Of these, 80 are planned refineries with identified development plans, while the remaining 74 are early-stage announced projects.

Globally, the new-build crude oil refining capacity from the planned and announced projects is expected to reach 13.3mmbd by 2024. The Lagos I refinery in Nigeria, Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait and Siraf refinery in Iran are expected to become major upcoming refineries with capacities of 650mbd, 615mbd and 480mbd respectively by 2024.

Among regions, Asia is forecast to be the largest contributor to the global refining capacity additions from the new-build projects with 5.3mmbd by 2024, accounting for 40% of the global total capacity growth.

In Asia, 47 planned and announced refineries are expected to start operations between 2020 and 2024. Among these, 18 are planned refineries and 29 are announced refineries. The Hambantota III refinery in Sri Lanka is the largest upcoming refinery in Asia with the refining capacity of 420mbd. It is expected to start operations in 2024.

Following Asia, the Middle East will be the second-largest region in terms of planned and announced refining capacity with 3.5mmbd of refining capacity by 2024. The region is expected to witness the start of operations of 21 refineries by 2024. The Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait is the largest upcoming refinery in the region with a planned refining capacity of 615mbd.