Nigeria to lead refinery capacity growth in Africa by 2023

Africa accounts for 3.4 per cent of the total global active refining capacity in 2018, according to a recent report by GlobalData.

Refining capacity in Africa increased from 3,423 mbd in 2013 to 3,544 mbd in 2018 at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 0.7 per cent. It is expected to increase from 3,544 thousand barrels per day (mbd) in 2018 to 7,841 mbd by 2023 at an AAGR of 15.9 per cent, the report found.

Egypt, Algeria, South Africa, Nigeria, and Libya accounted for over 78.2 per cent of the total refining capacity of the region in 2018, according to the GlobalData’s “Refining Industry Outlook in Africa to 2023 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook with Details of All Operating and Planned Refineries” report.

Africa refining industry, refining capacity market share vis-à-vis growth by key countries, 2013–2018

Source: Downstream Analytics, GlobalData Oil and Gas © GlobalData

The total refining capacity of Egypt in 2018 was 751 mbd. Egypt’s contribution to Africa’s total refining capacity was 21.2 per cent. Mostorod I, El Mex and Alexandria are the major refineries in the country.

Nigeria

The total refining capacity of Nigeria in 2018 was 446 mbd. Nigeria’s contribution to Africa’s total refining capacity was 12.6 per cent. Port Harcourt I, Warri I and Kaduna I are the major refineries in the country.

By 2023, Nigeria is expected to lead refinery capacity additions from planned and announced refineries (new-build)  in Africa. In Nigeria, 34 new-build sites are expected to start operations from 2019 to 2023 with a capacity of 2,135 thousand barrels per day (mbd).

Of these, Lagos I, Bayelsa III and Mashi are the top upcoming refineries by 2023. Lagos I is scheduled to start operations by 2021 with a capacity of 650 mbd, followed by Bayelsa III and Mashi refineries, which are expected to start commercial operations by 2023 with a capacity of 150 mbd each.