Oil and gas forecasts are based on sound methodology

5 April 2019 (Last Updated April 5th, 2019 15:53)

GlobalData’s forecast updates mean that flash news and periodically released reports are continually used to refine its estimates.

Oil and gas forecasts are based on sound methodology
GlobalData’s forecast updates mean that flash news and periodically released reports are continually used to refine its estimates.

GlobalData’s weekly oil and gas production forecast methodology is strong thanks to the completeness of its data, the timeliness of its information collection, its global coverage and its rigorous fact-checking.

Oil and gas forecast 2019

Also, the completeness of the historical data, the consideration of geopolitical scenarios and continuous assessment of impending planned fields help to strengthen the quality of its short and medium-term forecasts.

In addition, GlobalData’s forecast updates mean that flash news and periodically released reports are continually used to refine its estimates. Nevertheless, forecasts can be vulnerable to the uncertainties of the marketplace.

Global liquid and gas production forecasts were reviewed using GlobalData’s January 2017 forecast, where production estimates are based on historical data available up until 2015. Forecasts were compared to reported statistics of some of the industry’s top energy agencies.

Compared to the reported figures, GlobalData’s early 2017 production estimates generally trended slightly optimistically compared to reported results affected by 2016/2017 energy industry trends.

GlobalData’s global forecast production outlook comparison

Source: Upstream Economics, GlobalData Oil and Gas

In the short-term, several key issues will be monitored for their effect on regional and global production outputs. OPEC and non-OPEC partners continue to throttle their oil supply affording market price stability.

However, as cuts continue, inventories may increase which can change the supply landscape and market price very rapidly.

Suppliers in 2019

The US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Canada are the top five producers dominating 2019 supply forecast, with the US in the lead spot producing 18% of the world supply at 29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed).

The supply is tempered however by geopolitical uncertainty of countries such as US-sanctioned Venezuela – locked in a severe Maduro/Guaidó power struggle with declining investment in a country holding 24.9% of OPEC’s proven reserves.

What can be said across the top 30 producing countries and indeed across many in the industry, however, is their potential to ride out a grounded market after the 2014 market collapse.

Optimising costs and efficiency in development and operations has resulted in low per barrel expenditures and break-even costs.

These known risks will continue to be monitored for impact to global supply noting the variability that comes with known and unknown factors in evaluations.

The frequency of GlobalData’s forecasts combined with the use of the latest industry information means our forecast can quickly react to shifts.