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April 22, 2020

Daily report: World Covid-19 fatalities trend suggests peak has been passed, but not in the US

By Paul Dennis

22 April

The trend in new deaths caused by Covid-19 worldwide has jumped back up over last week, after a decline in last week’s figures.

The change has mostly been fuelled by the rising number of deaths in the US, where Covid-19 has claimed 25% of global deaths so far.

In Europe, early trends show that the peak might have already been passed.

Both Italy and Spain appear to be witnessing a slow but steady decline in the number of new deaths registered every day.

The picture is less clear in the UK and France, where the numbers of new deaths fluctuate from day to day but are generally trending downwards.

In the charts below we smooth out the data by using a rolling three-day average of deaths. Each day is plotted against the average number of new deaths reported over the previous three days. The percentage increases (or decreases) are plotted separately.

The charts cover the countries with the highest number of deaths overall, excluding China – where daily confirm deaths have slowed to a trickle – and Iran, where the data may not be reliable. The charts start at the point each country passed 1,000 Covid-19 deaths in total.

Covid-19 average daily deaths chart

While every nation is giving regular updates on deaths linked to the virus, it can be difficult to interpret this data. Daily death totals are volatile and can fluctuate rapidly from day to day; countries can change the time they report, or their methodology, leading to sudden and abrupt change.

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