Non-Opec oil production will peak next year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced.
The IEA also says that post-peak gas fields are declining at a rate of 7.5%, but there should be enough recoverable gas reserves to satisfy world demand until at least 2030.
Global oil demand is expected to reach 105 million barrels a day, according to the agency.
The UK’s Guardian newspaper has also quoted two whistleblowers who claim the agency privately believes oil production will never reach 100 million barrels per day, despite its forecasts that world oil demand will reach 105 million barrels a day by 2030.
The WEO has split its outlook into a ‘reference scenario’ in which energy consumption treads the current path and a ‘450 scenario’ in which CO2 emissions are restricted to 450ppm.
According to the no-change reference scenario, global oil will increase by 1% a year, touching 105 million barrels a day by 2030, which is a million fewer that IEA’s forecast in 2008.
According to the outlook, upstream oil and gas production this year is 19% less than 2008, which could severely impact energy security and climate change.
Oil and electricity supplies would be most affected and oil prices are likely to become more volatile.
By the year 2020 (in 2008 dollars), average oil prices will be $100 a barrel, compared with $60 this year, according to the report.
Oil imports from Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations are expected to decline under both scenarios, with the countries shelling out 2% on average on oil and gas imports from now up to 2030.