Tracking the oil and gas sector's Covid-19 recovery: how has the sector fared in Q2 2021?
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Tracking the oil and gas sector’s Covid-19 recovery: how has the sector fared in Q2 2021?

By Patrick Scott 16 Sep 2021 (Last Updated October 26th, 2021 11:44)

The oil and gas sector has emerged as the worst performer in the world economy when it comes to post-pandemic perfomance in Q2 2021.

Activity levels in the sector were 0.33% higher than they were at the end of 2019, before the pandemic decimated economies across the world. This means that, of the 18 sectors included in the analysis, the oil and gas sector ranks 18th in terms of its latest value for Covid-19 activity recovery.

The healthcare sector saw the highest sector activity levels in Q2 2021 relative to the last quarter of 2019, with the automotive, technology and apparel sectors comprising the rest of the top four.

GlobalData's sector activity metric is a derived from several of the company's research datasets. The composite index is composed using a combination of company level data on job advertisements, deals, stock prices and sentiment analysis across financial filings and news reports. It is a dynamic metric taking in millions of datapoints that can be used to track how strongly different sectors or industries are performing.

We can also delve into the component parts of the index to get a sense of exactly where companies from a given sector are over or underperforming. One of the more traditional measures of tracking performance is through the value of company stocks, which we've grouped together by industry to form a stocks performance index for each. After a dip in Spring 2020, the average sector has been performing above pre-pandemic levels since early August 2020. However, the extent of recovery varies by sector.

Oil and gas stocks generally underperformed the market in the past year, as per the chart above. By 30 June 2021, stocks in these companies - as tracked by GlobalData - were 6.6% above their starting point in October 2019.

Hiring levels are also useful in determining how confident a company is feeling about the months ahead. GlobalData's jobs index tracks job openings across thousands of companies on a daily basis, allowing us to assess that confidence in real-time and gauge which sectors are feeling Covid-19's impact the hardest.

The number of open job advertisements in oil and gas is currently at a lower level compared to most other industries, relative to their pre-pandemic norms. By 20 June 2021, the latest date for which data are available, hiring levels were 1.1% lower than those recorded prior to Covid-19's impact. This means that the oil and gas ranks 18th out of the 18 sectors analysed when it comes to the recovery of hiring levels.

In addition to jobs and stocks, our composite index also factors deals into account, tracking mergers, acquisitions, private equity and venture capital deals on a daily basis. This, again, can be seen as a good indicator with which to gauge how ambitious companies are feeling, with a greater number of deals indicating a more optimistic outlook.

Relative to pre-pandemic levels, the volume of financial deals in oil and gas has been lower than that of most other industries over the past 19 months.

By 30 June 2021, oil and gas deals were 3.5% lower than levels at the start of October 2019. This places the sector in 11th position out of the 18 industries included in the analysis on current deal volume recovery.

Methodology:

GlobalData’s unique Job analytics enables understanding of hiring trends, strategies, and predictive signals across sectors, themes, companies, and geographies. Intelligent web crawlers capture data from publicly available sources. Key parameters include active, posted and closed jobs, posting duration, experience, seniority level, educational qualifications and skills.