The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook predicts an increase in oil and gas consumption through 2050, with the US set to remain the world’s largest producer.
The IEA projected that oil demand could reach around 113 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) by mid-century, an increase of roughly 13% from 2024 consumption.
The agency also predicted that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity could expand to roughly 1.02 trillion cubic metres.
Total final consumption increases in the current policies scenario (CPS) by around 1.3% each year over the next decade, according to the IEA.
Global energy demand is forecasted to increase by approximately 90 exajoules by 2035.
IEA restored the current policies framework for the first time since 2019 after finding insufficient 2031–35 national climate plans to form a pledges-based pathway.
The agency said that its scenarios explore a range of possible outcomes under various sets of assumptions and are not forecasts.
In the stated policies scenario, which includes proposed but not yet adopted measures, oil demand peaks around 2030.
The report noted final investment decisions in 2025 will bring online around 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) of new annual LNG export capacity by 2030.
This represents an increase in global LNG volumes from around 560bcm in 2024 to 880bcm in 2035 and 1,020bcm by 2050.
IEA predicted a rise in power-sector demand from data centres and AI. It projects global investment in data centres at $580bn in 2025.
The outlook identifies electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates as a key variable.
Under the CPS, EV market share broadly plateaus after 2035, supporting higher oil consumption to mid-century.
In the stated policies scenario, EV sales double by 2030 and exceed 50% of new car sales around 2035.
The IEA also outlines a net-zero scenario that requires the deployment of emissions reductions and carbon removal technologies to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said: “When we look at the history of the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once – a situation that calls for the same spirit and focus that governments showed when they created the IEA after the 1973 oil shock.
“With energy security front and centre for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change.
“The World Energy Outlook’s scenarios illustrate the key decision points that lie ahead and, together, provide a framework for evidence-based, data-driven discussion over the way forward.”
The IEA, funded by member countries, with the US as the largest contributor, has faced pressure from the US to shift focus towards clean energy, reported Reuters.
Last month, the IEA projected an estimated surplus in the global oil market for 2026 of up to 4mbbl/d.
