Oil and gas refining is entering a new era, one defined not only by global demand fluctuations, regulatory pressure and decarbonisation goals but also by the operational intelligence required to keep complex refining assets running at peak performance.
The US Energy Information Administration has revealed that global refining capacity stood at around 103.5 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in 2023. Most planned growth is expected to be in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, especially in China and India. With this, global refinery capacity is expected to increase by between 2.6mbbl/d and 4.9mbbl/d by 2028.
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As refinery capacity increases and coincides with the digital era, refinery maintenance is becoming a strategic differentiator.
Across the world, refineries are facing aging infrastructure, labour shortages, rising operational costs and increasing vulnerability to unplanned shutdowns. A 2024 article published in the World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews noted: “the oil and gas refinery maintenance industry relies heavily on aging infrastructure to extract, transport and process hydrocarbons”. At the same time, global demand for petrochemicals, transportation fuels and specialty oils is rising in emerging markets.
To remain at the forefront of the competition, operators must limit downtime, safeguard asset longevity and ensure reliability, while meeting increasingly stricter global emission standards. This is where intelligent oil and gas refinery maintenance that provides smart monitoring through predictive analytics, AI, robotics and digital twins, among others, becomes necessary.
The new reality: why traditional maintenance models are no longer enough
For decades, refinery maintenance relied heavily on periodic inspections, manual monitoring and scheduled interventions. However, modern refineries operate far beyond the scope of these conventional methods. As the number of refineries has increased continuously over the last few years, modern maintenance systems have become more integral.
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By GlobalDataAging assets and rising failure risks
Many refineries worldwide were built decades ago and are now operating well past their original design lifetimes, increasing the probability of equipment degradation, corrosion and unexpected failures. In the US alone, there are 132 operable refineries with an aggregate crude-distillation capacity of around 18.4mbbl/d, so even small outages can ripple through supply chains and markets.
Older metallurgy, legacy control systems and deferred capital replacement raise the likelihood of unplanned shutdowns. Each incident can have a multi-million-dollar impact and materially affect local employment and tax bases. Upgrading and moving to condition-based regimes is now essential to reduce risk and protect throughput.
Skills gaps and workforce demographics
The refinery and broader oil and gas industry are aging. The sector needs a workforce with digital and inspection skills, creating a capability gap during the deployment of sophisticated condition-monitoring systems. Recent industry analyses highlight a talent squeeze as older, experienced personnel retire, and the industry has fewer entrants. A reduced talent pool means there are insufficient employees with data-science, instrumentation and remote-inspection skills. This demographic shift drives higher labour costs for turnarounds, complicates shutdown staffing and increases reliance on third-party service providers and automation to preserve institutional knowledge and maintain safe operations. Strategic reskilling and knowledge-transfer programmes are therefore critical.
Stricter safety, environmental and operational standards
Regulators worldwide are demanding more granular emissions and incident reporting, and expect demonstrable risk-reduction measures including leak detection and repair programmes and documented maintenance regimes. In the US, the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program requires reporting of refinery-level carbon dioxide equivalent and related data; these tighter reporting and permitting expectations increase the operational burden on refiners.
At the same time, regulators and markets reward demonstrable reductions in leaks, flaring and energy intensity, so modern maintenance programmes that cut leaks, shorten turnarounds and reduce emissions are not only compliance measures but also strategic differentiators for operators.
The rise of intelligent oil and gas refinery maintenance
Intelligent maintenance combines advanced technologies, analytics and automation. It transforms asset management from a reactive discipline to a predictive, real-time, insight-enabled one.
Predictive and prescriptive analytics
Rather than waiting for disruption maintenance, refinery operators have become smarter. Predictive and prescriptive systems detect equipment failure before it occurs and enable repairs beforehand for uninterrupted workflow. In refineries an hour of downtime can cost up to $500,000, making downtime reductions not only cost-effective but groundbreaking. Predictive models use vibration signatures, pressure anomalies, corrosion patterns and historical failure data to forecast issues, while prescriptive analytics recommend optimal action, spare parts and timing. This transition is dramatically reducing shutdowns of compressors, pumps, distillation units and heat exchangers.
IIoT and real-time monitoring
The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) has demonstrated its usefulness in monitoring through its sensors, which assess temperature, vibration and corrosion leaks in real-time. Real-time monitoring becomes increasingly necessary in high-risk units like catalytic crackers and hydrotreater systems. IIoT also provides data on continuous emissions monitoring, making it easier to comply with the latest government emission rules. Many operators now use refinery sensor data on cloud platforms for centralised operations centres, enhancing situational awareness across various sites.
Robotics and drones for inspection
Robots and drones are becoming essential for safer, faster inspections of flare stacks, boilers, tanks and pipelines, areas that traditionally requiring scaffolding, shutdowns or confined-space entry. For instance, Flyability reports that its Elios drone has reduced floating production, storage and offloading tank inspections for Texo from 7–10 days per tank to two. Elsewhere, crawler robots perform non-destructive testing of corrosion under insulation, without stripping insulation. These smarter tools increase work efficiency by reducing operational costs and limiting workforce risks.
Digital twins for asset optimisation
Refinery plants can be maintained and assessed through digital twins. The technology uses live sensor data to simulate performance, detect failures and test maintenance ground plans, enhancing energy efficiency and reducing operational risk through better scenario modelling. Oil and gas major bp reported that, in its first year of use, its digital twin solutions yielded 30,000 additional barrels. Refineries can investigate shutdown sequences, and stimulate performance or equipment configuration changes virtually before making real-world adjustments, reducing trial-and-error costs.
Cloud-based collaborative platforms
Cloud-native platforms amalgamate maintenance logs, inspection workflows, contractor documentation and engineering changes across global refinery networks. Cloud-based maintenance management systems offer faster work order completion and significantly improve cross-team visibility, especially in inventory management. Cloud platforms also centralise compliance reporting, which is increasingly critical as regulators push for more frequent environmental and safety disclosures.
Oil and gas refineries find themselves at a point where modernisation is the key to meeting the expanded demand for crude oil while committing to sustainability. As the industry encounters market volatility, increasing safety demands and rising operational costs, it is important to reconsider how refineries approach maintenance. Adopting AI, digital twins, IIoT sensors, predictive analytics and robotics is the imminent future of the industry – companies that embrace these technologies will be the winners.
