The global ammonia market has posted steady growth in recent years and is expected to expand further at a CAGR of 2.2% over 2026–2030. Demand will be led by China, India and the US, supported by their large fertiliser and industrial bases, the need to sustain agricultural productivity, and—particularly in the US and increasingly in China—emerging low-carbon ammonia opportunities linked to the energy transition.
China will remain a key ammonia demand centre due to its very large fertiliser and downstream chemicals base, where even low growth rates translate to meaningful volume. Nitrogen fertilisers, especially urea, will continue to be supported by food-security priorities and the need to sustain high yields on limited arable land. The country’s demand is also underpinned by its sizeable chemicals and materials value chains that use ammonia-derived intermediates. Incrementally, decarbonization efforts may lift interest in low-carbon ammonia as a hydrogen carrier and industrial feedstock, influencing sourcing and trade flows.
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India’s ammonia demand growth is primarily fertiliser-led, supported by a large agricultural economy, population-driven food demand, and policy mechanisms that prioritise fertiliser availability. Urea remains central to application rates required for stable yields, keeping ammonia offtake resilient. A major factor is India’s continued reliance on imports of ammonia and ammonia-linked fertilisers, as domestic capacity and gas feedstock availability do not consistently cover total requirements. This import dependence makes India a key marginal buyer in global markets through 2030.
The US will be a major demand driver on the back of stable, large-scale fertiliser consumption tied to corn and grains, complemented by steady industrial demand for ammonia-based intermediates such as nitric acid. Beyond agriculture, the US is also expected to see incremental pull from energy-transition use cases, including low-carbon ammonia as a hydrogen carrier and as a decarbonization option in select industrial applications.
Further details of global ammonia capacity and capex analysis can be found in GlobalData’s new report, ‘Global Ammonia Market: Key Projects and Capacity Additions, 2026‘.
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By GlobalData