The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN body responsible for assessing science related to climate change, helped define the global objective to hold temperature increases well below 2°C, and to limit them to 1.5°C for an ideal scenario. This formed the basis of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming and mitigate climate change. As of 2026, barring the US, most major economies on Earth are signatories to this framework. Under this, the year 2030 is the first major deadline for countries to prove they are on track with their climate actions. The IPCC estimates that the total global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by nearly 45% by 2030 to indicate that efforts are on the right track to achieving net zero by 2050. If this milestone is missed, the path to 2050 could become exponentially more expensive and technologically difficult. However, recent assessments from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) show that current global efforts still put the world on a path toward 2.5°C–2.9°C of warming unless countries significantly accelerate their actions.
In this context, GlobalData decided to conduct a survey on our readers to gauge their views on a realistic timeline for achieving this interim target. The survey was initiated during February and March 2026 and received 212 responses. Nearly half of these indicated that the IPCC’s interim target for 2030 might be reached even by the year 2050. This view is driven by a perfect storm of economic and political hurdles, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and disruption in global energy supplies. Global supply chains for critical resources, including hydrocarbons, have faced considerable disruption since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, leading to an inflation surge. These concerns have been aggravated by the Iran conflict, which has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and gas exports, thus heightening risks over energy security.
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Around 17% of the survey participants expect the world to achieve the interim emission goal during the decade from 2041 to 2050. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in January 2025 and pushback against climate-related lending at the World Bank have weakened the global unified front necessary for these targets. These developments have created a liquidity and leadership crisis in global climate action, which may effectively hamper the progress towards decarbonisation.
A third set of respondents, accounting for approximately 15% of the total, anticipate that the interim objectives might be reached between 2036 and 2040. At the moment, high inflation and rising interest rates have made the massive capital investments needed for green infrastructure significantly more expensive than required levels. This has caused several energy producers to defer or even cancel planned investments in low-carbon energy initiatives. Nevertheless, once inflation stabilises, project development may resume and allow companies to meet their targets
An even smaller set of participants, or around 10%, anticipate only small delays in meeting the interim goals during 2031 to 2035, instead of the year 2030. They might be of the belief that the early efforts were sound enough to fulfil the 2030 goal, but unforeseen circumstances arising from geopolitical tensions somewhat hampered the progress.
Lastly, only 9% of the survey participants believe that the world is on track to curb emissions up to 45% of the 2010 levels by 2030, as recommended in the IPCC findings. They could be of the logic that the tools to mitigate emissions are falling in place, such as carbon capture, renewables, low-carbon fuels, and hydrogen. An extra effort on the part of governments and corporates alike might help take things forward towards a greener future. Moreover, there is a consensus that the cost of doing nothing is higher than the cost of the transition.
