Historically, shale and the US have been almost synonymous; shale was the silver bullet that in 2013 pushed the US from declining conventional production to global production dominance. It has since retained its top spot and its extensive geological resources continue to fuel the nation’s economy.
The Energy Information Administration reports that crude oil production in the US Lower 48 shale plays increased annually by around 3% in the first half of 2025 to reach 11.1 million barrels of oil per day (mbbl/d). However, growth in the US shale market is undoubtedly slowing and an overall decrease in oil production is forecast for 2026.
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However, recent analysis by Offshore Technology’s parent company, GlobalData, reported: “Although the shale boom has somewhat receded in the US, optimism around this unconventional resource remains, driven by technological advancements and significant discoveries in countries such as China, Argentina and Saudi Arabia.”
The unconventional resource is teetering on the edge of the mainstream. Worldwide, other players are overcoming their geographical, technical and capital obstacles, and turning to recoverable shale oil and gas to reap the benefits of improved competitiveness and bolstered domestic supplies.
Canada
Home to the Permian Basin – the world’s most productive oilfield – the US holds the largest recoverable reserves of shale oil and gas, with recent estimates putting its supplies at 29.4 billion barrels (bbbl) of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. It is followed by Canada, which holds both the second-largest recoverable reserves of shale oil and the second-largest production capacity.
In the face of slowing US shale production, Canada has an opportunity. The Permian Basin is maturing, but demand for oil and gas, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), is increasing, driven by demand from power-hungry data centres. Canadian shale is thus becoming increasingly cost-competitive and operators are looking to buy land in key plays.
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By GlobalDataThe Canada Energy Regulator estimates that there at least 750tcf of remaining shale gas reserves across the country, and key plays like the Montney and Duvernay formations are estimated to contain around 4.5bbbl of oil. Drilling locations in Montney and Duvernay are estimated to be up to six-times cheaper than in the US’ Permian, offering investors an attractive financial environment.
In its recent report, GlobalData noted that: “The Canadian Government’s policies, including tax incentives and regulatory frameworks, aim to support the shale industry for economic growth while balancing its environmental impact.”
Canada’s most prolific play is the Montney shale in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin of British Columbia. It is primarily used to produce natural gas and is home the region’s growing LNG sector, addressing natural gas demand in Asia.
Argentina
Beyond the North American continent, the global outlook for shale oil and gas production is trending upwards.
Argentina’s technically recoverable reserves were originally estimated at more than 300tcf of shale gas and 27bbbl of shale oil, primarily in Vaca Muerta in the Neuquén Basin, the second-biggest source of shale gas globally and the fourth-biggest for shale oil.
Vaca Muerta boasts several advantages over the US’ Permian Basin, including its geological thickness and high pressure, which allow superior productivity and low breakeven costs. Development has previously been hindered by insufficient infrastructure and challenging economic policies that deterred investment; however, the region is gaining significant attention from both domestic and international companies.
Argentina’s shale plays have attracted investments from oil majors including Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, bp and ExxonMobil, while its own national oil company (NOC), YPF, is at the forefront of shale developments, having divested other interests to prioritise Vaca Muerta.
The country’s government has been actively seeking foreign investment to develop these resources and boost its economy, GlobalData analysis notes, and is creating “a favourable environment for construction of new pipelines and associated infrastructure to support shale developments”.
China
While the US is generally accepted to have the highest shale reserves, some estimates have suggested that China could be the rightful crown bearer, with resources estimated at roughly 883tcf, with vast reserves known to be located in the Sichuan and Ordos basins.
However, GlobalData analysis points out that “the complex geology and mountainous terrain makes extraction highly challenging, necessitating the development of advanced drilling techniques and significant infrastructure to support the extraction”.
Indeed, China’s two major NOCs, Sinopec and PetroChina, have invested heavily in appropriate technologies for the geology in these shale formations. Key advancements have been made around fast, long-reach horizontal drilling and intelligent rotary steerable systems, as well as advanced volume fracturing.
China’s focus on accessing its recoverable unconventional reserves is already reshaping the global leaderboard, especially in the gas space; JKempEnergy reported that China became the world’s fourth-largest producer after the US, Russia and Iran in 2024.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has long vied for the oil dominance crown, but it is also estimated to hold more than 600tcf of recoverable shale gas. Unconventional gas is already produced at the North Arabia and South Ghawar fields, but it is the Jafurah gas field which has investors’ attention.
Jafurah is the largest liquids-rich shale gas play in the Middle East and is estimated to hold 200tcf of reserves. The country’s NOC, Saudi Aramco, began production this week, with peak output expected by 2030, when production is forecast to reach two billion standard cubic feet daily.
GlobalData reports: “Saudi Aramco has made several discoveries of unconventional oilfields along with natural gas reservoirs in the Eastern Province and the Empty Quarter, namely Ladam, Al-Farouk and Samna, which could support long-term production growth.”
Successful development of unconventional gas resources could enable Saudi Arabia to reduce its reliance on oil domestically, in turn enabling it to increase its crude oil exports and increase revenue.
