British energy giant BP expects a strong performance from its trading operations in Q1 2024 from its oil and gas upstream production, along with favourable outcomes in low-carbon energy results.

BP foresees a rise of $100m (£78.75m) to $200m due to improved oil refining margins, Reuters said. On the other hand, lower realised prices are expected to impact the gas and low-carbon energy division, leading to a loss of $200–400m, according to BP’s first 2024 trading update.

Due to price lags on its production in the US Gulf of Mexico and the United Arab Emirates, the company said it would face an adverse impact of between $300m and $600m due to lower realised oil prices, as reported by Reuters.

BP announced an underlying replacement cost profit, a proxy for net profit, of $2.9bn in Q4 2023, down by 37.7% in Q4 2022. According to BP’s financial report, the company’s reported profit fell from $4.9bn in Q3 2023 to $0.4bn in Q4 2023, while net debt reduced to $20.9bn, a record low in a decade.

The British energy giant ended 2023 on a high note, with a $1.5bn share buyback programme, after which BP’s share purchases increased more than 5%.

“BP is committed to announcing $3.5bn for the first half of 2024,” the company said in February.

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The company will publish its first-quarter results on 7 May 2024.

The UK’s Shell also announced ahead of its financial results on 2 May that its LNG trading results for Q1 2024 are expected to fall significantly compared with its exceptional results in Q4 2023.

 In its Q1 update last week, the company stated that it anticipates strong trading and optimisation results, but not as high as the previous quarter. Additionally, it predicts LNG liquefaction volumes of 7.2–7.6 million tonnes (mt) in Q1 2024, an increase from 6.9mt in Q3 and 7.1mt in Q4 2023.