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November 20, 2019

Petrobras to become the world’s largest oil producer predicts Rystad

Brazilian Petrobras is set to become the world’s largest oil producer among publicly listed companies by 2030, according to data by Rystad Energy.

By Yoana Cholteeva

Brazilian Petrobras is set to become the world’s largest oil producer among publicly listed companies by 2030, according to data by Rystad Energy.

Although Brazil’s biggest oil auctions in the second week of November were less successful than expected, shortly after that the company gained eight billion barrels of oil in the Buzios field, where it also has a sixth floater planned. In addition, it bought development rights at the Itapu Field located in the Tarija Department of Bolivia during the transfer-of-rights sale, for which Petrobras paid a $443 million signing bonus.

Current plans for developments off the Brazilian coast are set for a $70 billion offshore capital investment spree between 2020 and 2025, on field development alone, which Rystad predicts to have a major effect on Petrobras’ status.

Rystad Energy upstream team vice president Aditya Ravi said “Petrobras can, in a matter of years, become the world’s largest oil producer among publically listed companies. The significance is huge and symbolic.

“We predict that Petrobras alone can boost its production numbers by more than 1.3 million barrels per day over the next decade,” he added.

Based on Rystad’s forecasts, after its latest acquisitions Petrobras has the potential to overtake PetroChina over the next few months, and overhaul the Russian producer Rosneft over the following decade.

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Rystad estimated that Brazil’s production could increase from 2.8 million bpd in 2019 average to over 5.5 million bpd thanks to Petrobras’ potential peak output of almost 3.8 million bpd by 2030.

During 2019, Petrobras climbed from fifth place to become the third largest oil producer, reaching output of around 2.2 million bpd in the third quarter. Currently, Rosneft and PetroChina top the list of largest public exploration and production companies.

Petrobras’net income in 3Q19 also reached R$ 9.1 billion – equivalent to R$ 0.70 per share – against R$ 18.9 billion in 2Q19. The Company’s recurring net income and adjusted EBITDA were R$ 10.0 billion and R$ 35.1 billion, respectively.

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