A new independent analysis commissioned by Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) from Westwood Global Energy Group has revealed that the UK has the potential to double its North Sea oil and gas production.
The study indicates that up to 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas remain untapped in UK waters, which is 3.2 billion more than current government projections.
This additional production could significantly contribute to the country's energy security and economic prosperity.
By harnessing this additional capacity, the UK could generate an extra £165bn ($224.01bn) in economic value.
If the country were to meet half of its oil and gas demand from domestic sources, this figure could rise to a total of £385bn, bolstering job security, investments, and public services.
The UK's Climate Change Committee, the government's independent advisory body, has stated that even if the UK meets all its climate targets on time, there will still be a significant demand for oil and gas.
However, other forecasts suggest that the North Sea will produce less than four billion barrels, fulfilling less than one-third of the projected need.
OEUK has cautioned that without government backing, the North Sea oil and gas sector may decline more rapidly, potentially leading the UK to rely on imports for 80% of its oil and gas requirements within the decade.
The industry is advocating for continued licensing and revisions to the windfall tax, with the government expected to announce its strategies later this year, according to the study.
In 2024, the UK's total energy production reached a record low, with over 40% of its energy needs being met through imports.
The findings of the report will be a central topic at OEUK's annual conference in Aberdeen, Scotland, today (24 June), which coincides with the 50th anniversary of North Sea oil and gas production.
The report distinguishes between a natural decline in field productivity and a decline accelerated by policy, suggesting that the latter could reduce domestic production to just 2.6 billion barrels.
Securing domestic energy from the North Sea could reportedly deliver reliable supplies with lower emissions, increase tax revenue, support 200,000 jobs, and reduce reliance on imported liquefied natural gas, which has a significantly higher greenhouse gas footprint.
OEUK chief executive David Whitehouse said: “This independent report shows the UK can make much better use of its own North Sea oil and gas to power the country, protect jobs, and cut the need for imports, all while we also accelerate renewables. This is not about oil and gas versus wind but about whether we prioritise homegrown oil and gas over imports.
“The UK is at a record 40% of imported energy, with policy decisions not geology driving an accelerated decline in North Sea production. In an increasingly volatile world, if we act now, the UK can meet more of its oil, gas and renewables needs from homegrown resources - we need it all.”
