The 2020 upstream development outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa is mixed. Despite multiple project starts in 2020, the two largest producers in the region (Nigeria and Angola) are expected to see a fall in total production as their largest mature fields continue their decline. Overall, a decrease in production from 2019 levels is expected for the region. The situation in East Africa is looking up as developments in Uganda and Kenya are among the 25 fields targeting FID this year, although push-backs have been seen on multiple occasions. Nigeria and Angola also dominate the targeted FIDs for 2020.
Some of the key project starts in the region include Agogo in Angola, Nene Marine (Phase 2b) in the Congo Republic and Anyala-Madu in Nigeria.
The development of the Agogo field offshore Angola has an estimated 450 to 650 million barrels of light crude oil in place. The Agogo-2 appraisal well was drilled in July 2019 and discovered an estimated 450 to 650 million barrels of light crude oil. The operator Eni had initially hoped to have this field begin production before the end of 2019, however this was slightly delayed and came online in January 2020.
The Nene Marine Phase 2b is an extension of the current development, focusing on the liquids rich zones of Nene Marine. Studies for additional phases to commercialise the reservoirs that are predominantly gas are in progress, with a floating liquefied natural gas vessel to export excess under consideration. This phase increases gross production to 54,000boed with around 26,000boed coming from the new development.
As for FIDs, the key projects that are targeting a final decision in the region include Sangomar in Senegal, the Mamba Complex in Mozambique and Tilenga in Uganda.
The Sangomar field will be Senegal’s first offshore development and contains both oil and gas. The operator Woodside made FID on this project on 10 January, with an aim to begin production by 2023. The field will be developed with 23 wells and an integrated subsea production system tied back to the 100,000 bd capacity FPSO. The Tilenga project consists of eight fields tied into a central CPF. The high pipeline tariff of $12.77 / bbl significantly increases total operating expenditure for projects in the Lake Albert region.
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The Tilenga project in Uganda is part of the greater Lake Albert development in the east of the country. Tilenga is the largest of the three major developments, consisting of eight fields tied into a central processing facility. The companies involved in this project have had a difficult time in reaching FID as Tullow wishes to farm-down prior to the final decision being made. This has led to disagreements with the Ugandan Government over tax relief for the other companies involved and led to multiple delays.
The Mamba Complex is currently in the pre-sanction stage of development with a plan to construct a two train onshore terminal to export a total of 15.2Mmtpa of LNG. This project, together with Area 1’s Golfinho-Atum Complex of 12.88Mmtpa, will account for approximately 10% of the potential capacity of global planned LNG projects by 2025.