Over $42.2 billion in capital expenditure will be spent by North Sea-focused operators on oil projects between 2018 and 2020 to bring up the regional production to 2,505,078 barrels of oil per day, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData. Norway will drive North Sea oil production with 1,465,184 barrels per day by 2020. United Kingdom and Denmark will follow with 910,350 and 119,343 barrels of oil per day respectively. Netherland’s oil production will decrease to 10,203 barrels per day by 2020.
GlobalData states that over 3.2 billion barrels of North Sea reserves will be produced by 256 oil fields over the three-year period, with new projects contributing 326 million barrels of crude. Conventional oil fields will be responsible for 2.9 billion barrels of production over three years and heavy oil will contribute 260 million barrels. Seven deepwater projects are expected to be producing by 2020, contributing 1,506,143 barrels per day to North Sea production and extracting 1.5 billion barrels over three years.
North Sea has 28 planned oil projects in the development pipeline, of which 18 will begin production by 2020 and contribute 574,603 barrels of oil to North Sea daily output in that year. GlobalData states that United Kingdom will lead with new oil projects with 12 fields producing first oil by 2020. Norway will see six new oil projects producing by 2020.
Average development break-even price for traditional crude projects in North Sea is estimated by GlobalData at $35 per bbl. Heavy oil projects in North Sea come online with a development break-even oil price of $38 per bbl on average. Shallow water projects require an oil price of $42 per bbl to break even, while deepwater projects in North Sea have a development break-even price of $20 per bbl.