GlobalData expects that Royal Dutch Shell’s liquids production will grow to 2.1 million barrels per day (mmbd) by 2021. The Sapinhoa (Guara) field will drive the company’s oil production with over 4.2% share of all production in 2021. Bonga Complex and Permian Basin Unconventional (Royal Dutch Shell Plc) will follow with 4% and 3.4% respectively.

By 2021, 380 fields globally will be contributing to Royal Dutch Shell’s liquids production, with an expected equity-weighted production of over 2.1 mmbd. GlobalData forecasts that new projects will be responsible for about 253,000 barrels of per day (mbd) in 2021.

Conventional oil fields will be responsible for 1.4 mmbd of production in 2021, oil sands will contribute 112 mbd, unconventional oil projects will produce 73 mbd, and heavy oil fields will contribute 62 mbd. Condensate from conventional and unconventional gas developments will contribute 399 mbd and 2.6 mbd respectively to Royal Dutch Shell’s liquids production by 2021. Onshore fields will contribute about 38.4%, ultra-deepwater around 26.4%, while deepwater and shallow-water fields respectively will contribute 19.8% and 15.2% of the total liquids production.

Royal Dutch Shell is expected to spend $35.3bn over the next four years on conventional oil, unconventional oil, heavy oil, and oil sands projects, with capex peaking in 2018 at $9.5bn. The Netherlands is expected to have the highest remaining capex per boe with $74.7/boe, while the company’s projects in United Arab Emirates are expected to have the lowest average remaining capex per boe at $0.8/boe.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s capital expenditure and production from conventional oil, unconventional oil, heavy oil, and oil sands projects

Source: GlobalData Upstream Analytics

Among the fields in which Royal Dutch Shell Plc has equity stake, the ultra-deepwater Sapinhoa (Guara) field in Brazil is the major oil producing field with an expected output of about 87.4 mbd of oil in 2021. The project has a remaining break-even oil price of $19 per barrel. Petroleo Brasileiro SA is the operator of this ultra-deep water field.

The Bonga Complex in Nigeria is a major deepwater oil producing field, which is expected to contribute around 83.0 mbd of oil in 2021 with the remaining break-even of $12 per barrel.

The company-operated Permian Basin Unconventional Project in the US is expected to contribute about 69.4 mbd of oil by 2021 with the remaining break-even oil price of $59 per barrel.