Over $79.4 billion in capital expenditure will be spent by Russia-focused operators on oil projects over the next four years to ensure that country’s production remains at 11 million barrels per day, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData. Rosneft Oil Company will drive Russia’s oil and condensate production with over 41.3 percent share of production in 2021. Gazprom (Gazprom Neft) and Lukoil Oil Company will follow with 15.1 percent and 14.6 percent of 2021 production respectively.

GlobalData states that over 16.4 billion barrels will be produced by 1,565 Russian fields over the forecast period, with new projects contributing 636 million barrels of crude and condensate. Conventional oil fields will be responsible for 14.5 billion barrels of production over four years, heavy oil will contribute 652 million barrels, and the remaining 1,283 million barrels will be condensate production from gas fields. Onshore fields will produce almost 88% of Russian crude and condensate, with only 2,052 million barrels of liquids coming from shallow water developments over the next four years.

Russia has 34 key oil projects and 14 condensate-yielding gas projects in the development pipeline. The contribution of new fields to the already producing oil and condensate fields leads to Russia maintaining oil production over four years. GlobalData states that Rosneft Oil Company will lead in greenfield oil projects, with 5participation in 16 planned and announced projects in the near future. Other major operators involved with new oil projects in Russia are Gazprom (Gazprom Neft) and Surgutneftegas, with six and five projects, respectively.

Average development break-even price for crude projects in Russia is estimated by GlobalData at $30 per bbl. Conventional oil projects average $27 per bbl as a development break-even oil price. Russian heavy oil projects come online with a development break-even oil price of $70 per bbl on average. Shallow water projects require an oil price of US$57 per bbl to break even, while the onshore projects have a development break-even price of US$28 per bbl.