Kicking off with the inauguration of US President Donald Trump and the third global AI Action Summit, 2025 was a year defined by substantial geopolitical shifts – cataclysms, even – and myriad mutating, maturing technology trends.
In oil and gas, uncertainty has translated into price volatility, while increased automation and advancements in decarbonisation technologies have addressed industry pain points. Across the board, it is the companies that have worked with developing trends, preparing for and managing risks while embracing change, that have come out on top.
Natural gas prices have been volatile, reaching their peak on 5 December at $5.289 per million British thermal units (Mbtu), a high not seen since December 2022. The difference between the highest and lowest point across 2025 was $2.537/Mbtu, compared to a difference of $1.9962/Mbtu in 2024 and $1.784/Mbtu in 2023.
Oil prices have also had an unsteady year. They reached their peak early, hitting $78.820 per barrel (bbl) on 13 January, a week before Trump’s inauguration, before hitting their lowest point on 16 October at $56.990/bbl. The overall trend has been definitively downward, as weakening demand met supply increases from OPEC and the US; talk of a ‘super glut’ in 2026 mean prices look set to remain low.
Diversification, strategic dealmaking and the adoption of risk-managing technologies have become the essential tools for future-proofing in the oil and gas sector; businesses that utilise these tools to prioritise adaptability in the face of unpredictability will position themselves to be leaders in 2026 and beyond.
This year’s leaders and laggards in oil and gas
It is generally the largest private companies and the national oil companies (NOCs) that are leading the oil and gas sector, prioritising efficiency, technology integration and decarbonisation.
Swati Singh, analyst at Offshore Technology’s parent company, GlobalData, explains: “In 2025, the oil and gas industry is undergoing significant change, led by the largest integrated companies and many NOCs. These operators are pushing to raise production efficiency, roll out technologies such as AI, advanced analytics and automation, and expand into low-carbon businesses, while growing gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets.”
According to GlobalData’s assessment, based on operations and market activity, decarbonisation initiatives and technology integration, US-based ConocoPhillips came out on top this year as the leading company globally, especially in regard to technological readiness. It ranked first for cybersecurity preparedness and joint-top for AI adoption alongside Norway-based Aker BP.
ConocoPhillips is followed by Australia-based Woodside Petroleum, which scored particularly highly in gas flaring and subsea activities, and by US-based Occidental Petroleum, which scored highly in shale activities and the use of Internet of Things technologies. Also in GlobalData’s top five were US-based Expand Energy and Australia-based Santos.
On the other end of the scale, Singh says that “slower-moving players tend to be those constrained by geopolitical risks, high operating costs in aging or technically challenging basins, heavy tax burdens and a business model still heavily centred on traditional refining and marketing, where demand growth for some products is relatively weak”.
The issue for laggards, then, is a failure to adapt and, by extension, a vulnerability to risk. According to GlobalData’s criteria, of the 39 assessed companies, Russia-based Irkutsk Oil scored the lowest, impacted by tariffs and poorly positioned in the LNG, shale and subsea activity criteria.
Just ahead of Irkutsk Oil is Turkiye-based Turkiye Petrolleri, which scores particularly poorly in cybersecurity, and US-based Hilcorp, which notably lags in gas flaring but scores highly in AI adoption.
By valuation, the picture is different. GlobalData measures valuation by enterprise value (EV) to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), EV to sales, dividend yield and free cash flow yield. According to these metrics, the top five oil and gas companies are Aker BP, US-based Civitas, US-based Murphy Oil, Japan-based Inpex and US-based EOG Resources.
There is overlap between the thematic laggards and the lowest-valued companies. GlobalData’s valuation metrics puts Turkiye Petrolleri in the bottom spot, followed by Norway-based Petoro, Bahamas-based Perenco, Irkutsk Oil and Hilcorp.
Looking forward, Singh comments: “Companies focused on natural gas and LNG, especially those with established LNG export capabilities, are well positioned for success in 2026, supported by rising global demand and favourable policy environments.”
The International Energy Agency forecasts that global LNG demand will accelerate by approximately 2% in 2026 due to strong demand growth expected in in Asia. It also notes that LNG supply is expected to increase by 7% as a result of new projects due to come online in the US, Canada and Qatar.
Aside from LNG producers, Singh also says that technology-focused service, engineering, procurement and construction companies will see success in 2026, noting that operators “that incorporate technologies like AI, advanced analytics and digital automation to streamline operations, cut costs and improve project delivery are likely to see strong demand for their capabilities”.
She adds that companies that use scenario planning to navigate market volatility are also likely to perform well, particularly those with sophisticated recovery operations or access to carbon tax incentives.
Technology trends in 2025
This year saw a continued maturation of technologies driving the energy sector’s digital transformation and energy transition.
According to GlobalData oil and gas analyst Ravindra Puranik, “oil and gas companies are securing digital technologies largely through collaborations with tech vendors and using them to enhance productivity and data analytics”. Automation has been a key theme across 2025, enabling oil and gas companies to track and manage assets in remote, challenging locations, and plugging the widening skill gap. AI is pushing the boundaries of intelligent automation, while driving efficiency at other stages of the value chain.
Upstream, AI analysis of geological and seismic data can streamline exploration and production processes by offering faster and cheaper identification of drilling sites. In midstream operations, AI offers potential in predictive maintenance, leak detection, logistics management and energy efficiency. In the downstream space, digital inspections and automated scheduling can enhance operational reliability.
Leading oilfield services company Baker Hughes has successfully pivoted to embrace AI. It entered the picture early through a joint venture with C3.ai in 2019, and now provides AI oil-and-gas-specific solutions to optimise processes including production, scheduling, inventory management and well development.
AI adopters are reaping the rewards, including Repsol which, in October 2025, reported that it uses AI across 60 use cases in production, 22 of which have been scaled up. It also reported that it had trained more than 5,000 employees in generative AI or advanced prompting techniques.
Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technology is another burgeoning technology that will continue to grow in importance in the oil and gas sector during 2026. GlobalData analysis demonstrates that a third of CCUS projects in the global pipeline are in the early development phase, meaning that most issued contracts are currently for concept studies and preliminary design tasks.
In its recent report, GlobalData noted that “Technip Energies and SLB (through its acquisition of Aker Carbon Capture) have led in contract number, while Worley and Capsol also secured notable design and engineering contracts in Australia and Norway, respectively.” It further identified that contractors with offshore and geotechnical expertise, such as SLB and Technip, were driving CCUS contract activity.
“The use of advanced technologies including AI, cloud computing and advanced drilling is becoming a key driver for competitiveness and long-term sustainability,” says Puranik. “In 2026, these trends will be further scaled and integrated into core operations, with a particular emphasis on AI, automation and advanced sustainability solutions to drive operational excellence, efficiency and environmental compliance.”
The impact of geopolitics
The oil and gas markets have had a rocky year thanks to growing geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices surged in June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, reaching highs of $73.840/bbl on 20 June. Ultimately, however, the conflict did not disrupt supplies, and prices dropped to $64.370/bbl on 24 June following a ceasefire agreement.
Meanwhile, Russia faced disruption as Ukraine attacked refineries and distribution facilities. By late October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes had reportedly hit more than half of Russia’s 38 major refineries at least once, reducing Russia’s production from around 5.4 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in July to approximately 5mbbl/d by September. More recently, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, (which carries approximately 1% of global oil) paused its operations after a Ukrainian drone damaged its Russian terminal.
Singh comments: “Market conditions in 2025 remain unstable. Geopolitical conflicts, uneven recovery patterns after Covid-19, inflation and other major global events have all contributed to sharp and frequent changes in oil and gas prices. This volatility has made financial forecasting and long-term planning more difficult for industry participants.”
Perhaps the only predictable element of 2026’s geopolitical scene will be its unpredictability. Doubtless, there will be moments of tension that threaten supplies and rock oil and gas markets. Disruptions in key trade routes such as the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden look set to continue causing instability in supply chains, while trade disputes between the US and China are unlikely to dissipate.
The Russia picture remains uncertain into 2026; the Trump administration continues to push for a peace plan, but Ukraine remains steadfastly against any deal which surrenders land to Russia. If a deal is reached, Moscow’s sanctions could be lifted, resulting in an influx of previously restricted oil supplies into the market.
GlobalData’s Global Upstream New Build and Expansion Projects Outlook report noted that Europe, as it shifts away from Russian imports, is expected to account for around one-fifth of the total oil project starts between 2025 and 2030. It stated: “This can be attributed to accelerated production activity aimed at reducing dependence on Russian oil imports, plus ongoing exploration and development programmes – particularly in the North Sea.”
Simmering tensions between the US and Venezuela could also pose a new threat to global oil markets. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that Venezuela had the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves in 2023, with approximately 303 billion barrels – approximately 17% of global reserves, although its production was far below this at 0.8% of total global crude, as of 2023.
The biggest price influencers, however, will be the production decisions from the US and OPEC countries. The Trump administration is working to increase US oil and gas production, but lead times are lengthy, and the EIA currently forecasts a slight decline in US crude oil output from 13.61mbbl/d in 2025 to 13.53mbbl/d in 2026. It expects dry natural gas production to increase, forecasting an average of 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2026, up from 107.7bcf/d in 2025.
Elsewhere, OPEC increased its oil production targets in 2025 by around 2.9mbbl/d following a period of lower production intended to keep prices high. OPEC’s targets are expected to be paused in 2026, as producers look to stabilise a market facing oversupply and weak global demand.
“Oil prices are likely to remain unstable as the risk of global supply growth outstripping demand persists. Production decisions in the US and output policies from OPEC+ will be key drivers of this imbalance. These moving parts add to uncertainty, making it more difficult for companies to commit to long-term investments and strategic plans,” concludes Singh.
