Shell’s recent projections indicate that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to grow in the coming years, while gas demand will likely increase more gradually and oil may peak early next decade.
The energy company developed three scenarios, named Surge, Archipelagos and Horizon, to model long-term energy security and offer different outlooks on economic growth, AI adoption and climate targets.
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The Surge scenario envisions widespread adoption of AI to enhance global productivity and energy demand.
This scenario projects a continuous increase in LNG supply, potentially reaching more than 700 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) beyond 2040.
In contrast, the Horizon scenario, which aims for net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, sees LNG demand peaking in the early 2030s by three to five million barrels per day.
Natural gas growth, which is expected to reach around 4.5 trillion cubic metres per year in the mid-2030s as per the Surge scenario, is also subject to these varying forecasts.
As per the Surge scenario, natural gas is expected to grow until 2045, while in the Horizon scenario, its peak is imminent in order to achieve the net-zero emissions target.
Furthermore, Shell points to the electrification of road transport as a key factor in the world reaching peak oil demand by 2030 at the latest in the Surge scenario.
The Archipelagos scenario envisions a world where countries prioritise self-interest, potentially affecting the collaborative development of AI and renewable energy sources.
This could lead to different energy dynamics compared with the other two scenarios.
Shell said: “In all three scenarios, LNG shows significant growth in the near term, fuelled by ongoing projects in Qatar and the US, reaching around 550mtpa by the end of the decade.”
