ExxonMobil has forecast a reduction of $1.5bn in its second-quarter (Q2) earnings 2025 due to lower oil and gas prices, as reported by Bloomberg.
The energy giant indicated that oil prices have negatively impacted earnings by $1bn, with gas contributing an additional $500m loss compared to the first quarter.
The industry outlook, as suggested by earnings guidance from ExxonMobil and its European counterpart Shell, appears subdued.
Both companies have hinted at a challenging quarter ahead, marked by difficulties in generating sufficient free cash flow to sustain dividends and share repurchases that were increased following record earnings in 2022.
The trade tensions incited by US President Donald Trump and unexpected supply hikes from OPEC [the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] and its allies have exerted downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, including US and Israeli actions against Iran, have only provided short-lived price support.
Despite these challenges, ExxonMobil expects to see some relief from refining margins, which are anticipated to bolster earnings by $300m.
The company clarified that the provided guidance solely reflects market pricing and does not account for operational performance variables such as production changes or cost fluctuations.
Global investment bank RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria commented on the guidance, stating that it is "bang in line" with what analysts had predicted for ExxonMobil's second quarter. He noted that ExxonMobil's trading operations are considerably smaller than Shell's, which shielded it from some of the issues impacting its European peer.
ExxonMobil has announced it will disclose its finalised quarterly results on 1 August. Wall Street analysts, as per London Stock Exchange Group estimates, are expecting the company to report adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share for the second quarter, as reported by Reuters.
In the first quarter, ExxonMobil reported upstream earnings of $6.8bn, contributing to a total profit of $7.71bn.
In June 2025, the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) signed new agreements with Exxon Mobil and bp for oil and gas exploration in the country.
