The International Energy Agency (IEA), which works with countries around the world to shape energy policies for a secure and sustainable future, projects that global oil demand will peak before 2030. This projection is influenced by the recent advancements in the transportation sector – the largest market for crude oil -including the rise of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), improved fuel efficiency, and the increased consumption of biofuels. In its 2024 World Energy Outlook, the IEA forecasted that oil demand would plateau at approximately 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029, followed by a slight decline in 2030. The IEA’s outlook contrasts with that of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which maintains a more optimistic view of long-term oil demand. The cartel estimates that the demand will not peak before 2045, partly due to a slower-than-anticipated shift to cleaner fuels.
Considering these contradictory outlooks, leading data and analytics company GlobalData conducted a survey among its readers to understand their views on the probable timeline for peak oil demand. The poll was carried out from October to December 2024 and received 203 responses over this timeframe. More than 60% of the respondents indicated that global oil demand will continue to rise even beyond 2030. This response is in line with OPEC’s outlook and may reflect a broader consumer mindset that still prefers to purchase vehicles running on internal combustion engines (ICE) for their longer range, faster refuelling, longer operational life, reliability, and costs.
Around 28% of the respondents believed global oil demand might peak in 2030 or even before that. Half of these respondents voted for the former choice while the remaining half were even more pessimistic about the outlook for oil demand and expected it to peak in the next three-four years. Both these views may be driven by the fact that several developed countries intend to phase out ICE vehicles in favour of BEVs and other alternatives that don’t consume petroleum fuels such as hydrogen-powered fuel cell EVs.
It is worth noting that markets such as Europe and the UK have revised or even pushed back their plans to phase out ICE vehicles owing to energy security concerns. Even car makers that had originally pledged to completely transition to electric vehicles are reconsidering their decisions due to several factors, including costs, supply chain challenges, and profitability concerns. The pace of EV adoption has somewhat slowed down from the initial hype a few years ago. GlobalData predicts that EV sales will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% between 2024 and 2030 – a decrease from a CAGR of 39% between 2019 and 2024.
