The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has predicted that world oil demand will rise to 116 million barrels per day by 2045, a larger prediction than its 2022 estimate.
In its 2023 World Oil Outlook report, released on Monday, OPEC also stated that $14trn of investment in oil will be needed by 2045 to meet demand. OPEC’s estimates contrast strongly with forecasts made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has predicted that global oil demand will peak before 2030.
While launching the report in Riyadh, Saudi Arabi, OPEC secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais claimed that many nations are showing resistance to net-zero policies. “Over the past year what is clear is that we have seen populations voice concerns about the costs and actual benefits of net-zero targets,” he said.
Continued investment in oil could bring significant financial benefit to OPEC member states, whose members make billions of dollars per year from the oil industry. As such, the organization has continually shown hesitancy about divesting from oil. Al Ghais reiterated this view in Riyadh on Monday, stating: “Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos.
“There are some who unfortunately continue to push the extremely risky narrative of dismissing oil with talk of oil demand dropping by almost 25 million barrels a day by the year 2030,” he added.
OPEC’s report states that global oil demand will rise from 2023’s 102 million barrels per day to 110.2 million by 2028. OPEC’s estimates have increased from its 2022 predictions; its 2022 report estimated demand would reach 106.9 million barrels per day by 2027, while the latest report predicts 109 million barrels per day of demand by 2027.
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